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Canada still has a significant backlog of tests they haven't been able to complete, which skews numbers. It is also not yet certain how many people are asymptomatic carriers compared with symptomatic carriers, which means that the true number of contagious infections is a mystery since people only go for testing if they feel sick.

I take it with a grain of salt, but the WHO says that asymptomatic carriers are not likely to spread the disease.

Currently in Canada our covid numbers are 134 deaths to 1906 recoveries, which is giving a rough death rate of 134/(1906+134) X 100% = 6.57%. A approximate death rate of 6.57% is actually higher than the real death rate because we are not able to count the unknown number of asymptomatic carriers, but this number is still reassuring. The actual death rate could really be between 1-6% (with access to medical care).

Countries like Italy are reporting much higher numbers of deaths due to their median age being higher than Canada. The virus is more likely to kill older people as we all know and this higher median age directly means that Italians are at higher risk. The Italian's are also experiencing a higher death rate due to their entire healthcare system being overburdened and maximum testing capabilities.

For countries like the United States with enormous testing backlogs due to major delay in testing the number of coronavirus cases is much higher than the reported amount. This contributes to a much higher death rate of 5718/(5718+10324) X 100% = 35.64%. This 35.64% death rate is naturally much higher than reality due to failure in testing.

The United States has given an actual estimate for the minimum number of deaths they expect due to coronavirus of 100,000 to 240,000. This was the minimum stated if the entire US was to practice a hardcore regime of social distancing. Higher estimates without good social distancing entered into the millions. The rhetoric from their government was that they should stop social distancing to prevent economic decline.

Generally, private healthcare systems are not designed for large volumes of patients like public healthcare systems, due to them having a much lower normal volume of patients. Overwhelmed hospitals, whether private or public mean no available healthcare to very sick patients and that greatly increases death rates. That is why governments are pushing for social distancing to flatten the curve.

A reduction in the peak number of people sick at the same time months from now is key to reducing unnecessary deaths.

I'm not sure if the numbers have changed (need to find a source), but it still seems to be the Canadian government's opinion that somewhere between 30-70% of Canadians will be infected with the coronavirus in the end. Considering that the death rate in Canada is lower than 6.57% my belief is that a realistic estimate is 300,000 Canadians will die due to the coronavirus assuming a 3% death rate.

My opinion is also that the US's low estimate of 100,000-240,000 deaths is unrealistic considering their population is much larger than Canada, their healthcare system is private rather than public, they already have supply shortages, their testing problems and backlogs are quite bad currently, and government promotion of easing back social distancing for economic benefits (which many citizens are supporting).

As the virus continues to spread there will be problems with testing capacity, which is already a problem in many countries (like Canada with it's backlog). The actual numbers of infected will not be well known. But I will still make another very rough estimate for my own sake (to make decisions) that Canada will hit 100,000 cases by April 20th, or have so many backlogs that it could be possible.

April 5th, 16,000
April 10th, 31,000
April 15th, 60,000
April 20th, 100,000

If these numbers are roughly accurate, then I will have to assume that my death estimates could be roughly accurate. If that is the case then I need to continue to take the pandemic as seriously as the statistics provided to me show. Even if people don't die ... it's not like being seriously sick in ICU is any less terrible.

The Canadian government naturally has estimates for the number of deaths they expect, but they do not want to release those numbers to the public. It's probably shrewd to not create unnecessary panic or commit to numbers too early when the results of social distancing measures are not yet clear (showing enough data for good long-term trendline estimates).

When the Canadian government says 30-70% of Canadians are likely to get coronavirus it means that a certain number of Canadians in a particular time period need to simultaneously be sick. It's redundant to say, but important to distinguish because at the peak of the infection (maximum number of people sick at the same time) the most deaths will occur due to healthcare system overload.

It's hard for me to predict that peak number of infections for Canada, and it's not really possible for me to say how well the healthcare system will handle that point of maximum stress. In another sense, if Canada can't replicate South Korea's success in dealing with Coronavirus then there will be a time period where the pandemic culminates in the greatest possible life or death trial for Canadians.

Another good point is that the Canadian government provided financial aid for 4 months (CERB) to Canadian citizens. $2000/month for 4 months starting this April. This time period isn't random. Probably this 4 month time period is the most critical part for flattening the curve and may include the peak number of infections in it's interval. So ....