How accurate are Hathnuz's predictions?

[Shoemilk]

So in this thread: https://forum.scribblehub.com/threa...r-your-story-will-become-popular-or-not.5332/
Hathnuz offers predictions on how he thinks based on premise and tags how popular the author's story will become on Scribble Hub.
His predictions are based on the trends and tastes of the readers on this site. They have nothing to do with writing quality. Shakespeare could be writing it, but unless it's going to hit the right buzzers, there's a high probability it'll hit the bin of obscurity. Such is life and a few people seem to take it much too personally. It's like how record companies know who to sign. They know what sound will be popular based on trends, despite what you as an individual might like.

Anyway, the answer is: pretty fucking accurate. Most he nailed and those he didn't are either still too new as of this post (but scaling towards the prediction) or he was only off by a little bit. No matter how you dress lima beans up, you're not going to get that 7yo who hates them to eat them. It's a trend. If you want to be popular and he says you won't, I hate to tell you but either ditch the idea if popularity is your end game or ditch the idea of being popular and just enjoy writing for writing's sake

Spreadsheet of his predictions:

Hathnuz predictions

Sheet1 author,# of chapters,rated,actual Agentt,30 chapters,no,193 CL,none,no,afaik unposted Aniket-111,8,no,5 Ai-chan,8,no,74 Kinnikuniverse,2,no,2 Ace_Raven,none,no,unposted megu3,55,no, max 200,55 Candy_Man,32,okay-ish,63 CadmarLegend,57,107 morhamza,16,less than 100,24 MoodyFoxCat,deleted,le...

docs.google.com

Read my story! Make my lima beans popular again!

One Last Sunset

Quickly approaching her 20th birthday, Cara Vatcher must choose between being a Quest Giver or a Quest taker, as all Palanitians must. Her choice will define the rest of her life and risk her crossing paths with the most violent, power-hungry, and brutish of creatures: players. How will Cara...

www.scribblehub.com

 

[LoliGent]

If you want to be popular and he says you won't, I hate to tell you but either ditch the idea if popularity is your end game or ditch the idea of being popular and just enjoy writing for writing's sake

Pretty much this. I was shocked to see how accurate Hathnuz was, but not really surprised. All it is is just looking at the data and determining what is popular. There are nuances to this, but that's the basics of it.

It's like how record companies know who to sign. They know what sound will be popular based on trends, despite what you as an individual might like.

Again, right on the money. I'm sure I speak on behalf of everyone when I say that we all think this way. We think we have written the next world changing story, but no, we didn't. Some will love it, most will ignore it. That's just how it is unless you have some to hype your story in-front of millions and hope that your content actually resonates with said million people. Hope is all we really have and it doesn't always work out.

 

[K5Rakitan]

I can't remember what Hathnuz predicted for my stories.

 

[Snusmumriken]

This is why I didn't even dare to post there, while gratefully using @TheTrinary services instead. Knowing if you get popular or not might be helpful, but if you are just writing for yourself and not to be popular it can also unnecessarily hurt your morale. Or maybe not, perhaps it could prepare you for the inevitable.

 

[Shoemilk]

I can't remember what Hathnuz predicted for my stories.

He abstained from predicting because of poerty.

 

[K5Rakitan]

He abstained from predicting because of poerty.

Oh yeah. Well, it's doing pretty well so far

 

[Hathnuz]

So in this thread: https://forum.scribblehub.com/threa...r-your-story-will-become-popular-or-not.5332/
Hathnuz offers predictions on how he thinks based on premise and tags how popular the author's story will become on Scribble Hub.
His predictions are based on the trends and tastes of the readers on this site. They have nothing to do with writing quality. Shakespeare could be writing it, but unless it's going to hit the right buzzers, there's a high probability it'll hit the bin of obscurity. Such is life and a few people seem to take it much too personally. It's like how record companies know who to sign. They know what sound will be popular based on trends, despite what you as an individual might like.

Anyway, the answer is: pretty fucking accurate. Most he nailed and those he didn't are either still too new as of this post (but scaling towards the prediction) or he was only off by a little bit. No matter how you dress lima beans up, you're not going to get that 7yo who hates them to eat them. It's a trend. If you want to be popular and he says you won't, I hate to tell you but either ditch the idea if popularity is your end game or ditch the idea of being popular and just enjoy writing for writing's sake

Spreadsheet of his predictions:

Hathnuz predictions

Sheet1 author,# of chapters,rated,actual Agentt,30 chapters,no,193 CL,none,no,afaik unposted Aniket-111,8,no,5 Ai-chan,8,no,74 Kinnikuniverse,2,no,2 Ace_Raven,none,no,unposted megu3,55,no, max 200,55 Candy_Man,32,okay-ish,63 CadmarLegend,57,107 morhamza,16,less than 100,24 MoodyFoxCat,deleted,le...

docs.google.com

Read my story! Make my lima beans popular again!

One Last Sunset

Quickly approaching her 20th birthday, Cara Vatcher must choose between being a Quest Giver or a Quest taker, as all Palanitians must. Her choice will define the rest of her life and risk her crossing paths with the most violent, power-hungry, and brutish of creatures: players. How will Cara...

www.scribblehub.com

Thank you very much for your review(?). I gotta admit, I didn't expect to see a forum post mentioning my (user)name though I don't mind lol. Aside from me agreeing with you, I'd like to add that it is doable to become popular without relying completely on trending premise and tags. You just have to understand your audience, grammar, and be original.

Thanks to this post, I need to give feedback for JM_Webb -- I haven't checked my thread since the forum doesn't give notification for posts unless they directly quoted the poster.

I really appreciate this, so yeah, thanks again.

 

[Shoemilk]

No, thank you for your service! it was a fun, interesting thread to read. thank you!
Also, since Im new to these forums, I'm just now discovering the lack of notifications @Hathnuz thanks for the heads up
I'm somewhat tempted to ask you to do mine (especially since it's for this: https://www.inkfortpress.com/derby/)
But seeing how your response won't really affect my story (I can't change the title, and I'm writing what I want to read), I've passed as I'd rather not take the "less than 100 by 30" ego bruising (granted, I don't think I'll get to 30 chapters in it before the contest ends).

But, any way I just wanted to show my thanks to you and compile this so the h8ers can back off :)