[Mafia #1] Scribble Hub isn't a dating site! (Game Thread)

[binarysoap]

Is there any penalty to lynching your lover other then having to find a new one in 8 hours?

I mean if you're ur not a spy that makes your lover have a 50% of being one

Where did you pull that 50% number from?

There are 6 Scribblers. Only 2 of them are paired with Nuffian agents. Only 2 Scribblers are paired with Nuffian Agents. 4 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers.

So 4 out of 6 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers. Which makes it that only 33.3% chance of your lover actually being a spy.

 

[Enigma]

Where did you pull that 50% number from?

There are 6 Scribblers. Only 2 of them are paired with Nuffian agents. Only 2 Scribblers are paired with Nuffian Agents. 4 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers.

So 4 out of 6 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers. Which makes it that only 33.3% chance of your lover actually being a spy.

Still a good chance of your partner being one if you're not

 

[binarysoap]

Still a good chance of your partner being one if you're not

Well choosing a random person nets you 2/7 chance, which is 29%. Sure, 33% is higher than 29%, but not by much. Also, the issue is you might end up committing sepuku if the person you try to confess to rejects you.
And the main issue is HOW DARE YOU BE UNFAITHFUL TO YOUR BELOVED.

 

[Zero300]

Well choosing a random person nets you 2/7 chance, which is 29%. Sure, 33% is higher than 29%, but not by much. Also, the issue is you might end up committing sepuku if the person you try to confess to rejects you.
And the main issue is HOW DARE YOU BE UNFAITHFUL TO YOUR BELOVED.

Enigma might be the other spy. He’s trying to sow chaos amongst us townies by raising the probability up to 50%. Now we’ll be even more paranoid about our loved ones.

 

[Enigma]

Enigma might be the other spy. He’s trying to sow chaos amongst us townies by raising the probability up to 50%. Now we’ll be even more paranoid about our loved ones.

Well if your not paranoid about them and fight to the death to defend them you might lose.

4 teams 2 spies each in a different team so half the teams have a spy

 

[AliceShiki]

It's tempting, but it'd be easy enough for the spys to avoid by just killing off there lovers first

Just remember if your not a spy there's a good chance your partner is.

Only if they find a new lover~ *giggles*

Where did you pull that 50% number from?

There are 6 Scribblers. Only 2 of them are paired with Nuffian agents. Only 2 Scribblers are paired with Nuffian Agents. 4 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers.

So 4 out of 6 Scribblers are paired with Scribblers. Which makes it that only 33.3% chance of your lover actually being a spy.

There are 8 players divided into 4 pairings of two, which are as follows:

SC-SC
SC-SC
SC-NU
SC-NU

So... If you are a Scribbler, there is a 50% chance your partner is a Nuffian actually.

 

[binarysoap]

Only if they find a new lover~ *giggles*

There are 8 players divided into 4 pairings of two, which are as follows:

SC-SC
SC-SC
SC-NU
SC-NU

So... If you are a Scribbler, there is a 50% chance your partner is a Nuffian actually.

I mean sure, half the teams have a Nuffian, but if you are a scribbler, there's a higher probability that you are in a team that doesn't have a nuffian spy, so you need to weight that appropriately

Check out Bayesian statistics for details.


Here's an extreme example of why your idea doesn't work:

Imagine if there are 4 teams. Each team has 100 people in it. Teams A and B have 99 nuffians and 1 scribbler. Teams C and D have 100 scribblers.
Based on your argument, if you are a scribbler, there is a 50% chance there are nuffians in your team.
That's wrong, since the likelihood of you being in Team A or Team B is really low.

 

[binarysoap]

I wanted to lynch Enigma for being bad at math, but then AliceShiki also is equally bad at math. Then I remember I have a grudge against AliceShiki from a certain other forum game...

So Vote @AliceShiki and tagging @ohko.

 

[AliceShiki]

Imagine if there are 4 teams. Each team has 100 people in it. Teams A and B have 99 nuffians and 1 scribbler. Teams C and D have 100 scribblers.
Based on your argument, if you are a scribbler, there is a 50% chance there are nuffians in your team.
That's wrong, since the likelihood of you being in Team A or Team B is really low.

Uhn... I don't see how a 99:1 proportion compares to a 1:1 proportion. You totally lost me there.

 

[binarysoap]

Uhn... I don't see how a 99:1 proportion compares to a 1:1 proportion. You totally lost me there.

Well okay, let's just go with the actual problem at hand

There is a 2/3 chance that a scribbler is paired with another scribbler, and only a 1/3 chance that a scribbler is paired with a nuffian.
Do you at least get that part?

 

[Enigma]

When does day 1 end if not everyone votes?

 

[Enigma]

When does day 1 end if not everyone votes?

Never mind found the timer

 

[AliceShiki]

Well okay, let's just go with the actual problem at hand

There is a 2/3 chance that a scribbler is paired with another scribbler, and only a 1/3 chance that a scribbler is paired with a nuffian.
Do you at least get that part?

Ah, I got the gist of it after thinking about it for a while longer, I was basically not taking into account the fact that you not being a Mafia actually reduces the chance of there being a Mafia on your team.

So it's actually better to just shoot at the other teams instead of yours~

 

[Enigma]

So Alice is at 2 votes right now?

Let's tie up the votes for more bloodshed

! Vote zero300 @ohko

 

[AliceShiki]

A tie would be funny, if there was no Mafia in both pairings involved in the tie, the game would be finished in 32h~

Or if there were Mafia in both pairings, then the game would also end...

Looks like a fun bet! Let's go for it! XD

 

[Zero300]

Fellow townsmen, if I die, then suspect Enigma! Only spies would want bloodshed!

 

[Blitz]

I didnt realize the game started

Wrong thread

 

[Blitz]

You know who are the most likely to be mafia? @Gaap and @binarysoap
Binarysoap is someone who would pretend to be your friend but vanish and be inactive when you need them the most. After everything's over they would come lament and try to comfort you. Such a scumbag

@Gaap is even worse. They have broken the hearts of who knows how many poor maidens. They're always on the run looking for a fun new project.
Hence only these 2 disfunctional tired can possibly look after the other

 

[Blitz]

!Vote Gaap

 

[Assurbanipal_II]

Ohko, what is the vote count so far?